FOOTBALL: My 2006 NFL Picks

For the 2nd time in less than a week, my TOTW was cancelled by rain in New York City. While I'm still recommending today's make-up doubleheader between the Braves and Mets, it won't count in our daily scoreboard. Instead, today I'm using the forum to offer my NFL picks for the 2006 season. So far my blogging breathern have been quiet about their predictions. I get the ball rolling on a tradition that goes back to our college years.

AFC East: New England - Still the class of the division. However, they do need Deion Branch back. Losses on defense will hurt, but their experience on O and D still gives the Pats the edge over rapidly improving Miami.
AFC Central: Baltimore - Pittsburgh got hot last January but, without the Bus, they revert back to the team that barely made the playoffs in 2005. Cincy may be good, but I'm rooting against them for their offseason thuggery. So the default pick is Baltimore. Their offense should finally impove with stop-gap QB Steve McNair and depth at RB with Jamal Lewis and Mike Anderson.
AFC South: Jacksonville - A much overlooked team. They don't have any big names, but are building a solid system with Coach Jack Del Rio emphasizing defense. QB Byron Leftwich finally has his breakout year. Indy is still good but everyone's older (including Marvin Harrison) and Edgerrin James is gone.
AFC West: Denver - This division will beat each other up. But Denver always finds a way to have a dominant running game and 1st round pick QB Jay Cutler will be the starter by week 9. He'll be remembered as the star of the 2006 class.
Wildcards: Indianapolis and Miami - Manning and co are too good to miss the playoffs. But I think they take a step back from last year's 14 win season. The Dolphins still have a good defense and have finally found a QB to replace Dan Marino. Culpepper should be fine and I expect Ronnie Brown to emerge as an all-pro.

NFC East: Philadelphia - Philly has a healthy McNabb and no TO. Otherwise, they still have many of the same pieces that made them the class of the NFC for several years. In this competitive division, 10 wins is all it may take.
NFC Central: Minnesota - QB Brad Johnson does just enough to win. He almost got the Vikes into the playoffs last year. While he is a dinosaur, if Johnson can stay healthy I think Minnesota is the class of this weak division. Chicago seems to always have one breakout year followed by 3 or 4 horrible ones. So now it's time for more losing.
NFC South: Tampa Bay - The best division in football. I'm biased being a fan of both the Bucs and Falcons, but few would disagree that the top 3 teams here are pretty good. The Bucs D is old, but Monte Kiffin always plugs new pieces into his system. They need QB Chris Simms to prove 2005 was no fluke.
NFC West: St. Louis - I think Seattle suffers the same fate that has plagued Super Bowl runner-ups for several years. Perhaps a Shaun Alexander injury is in the future? If St. Louis can keep QB Marc Bulger healthy, they can win a bunch of games against an easy schedule.
Wildcards: Carolina and Atlanta - The fear is that all these NFC South teams will beat each other up. But the same thing is likely to happen in the competitive NFC East anyway. And the other 2 divisions are really weak. So I like Carolina and Atlanta to each win 10 games and back into a wildcard where they could be dangerous.

AFC Champ - Indianapolis
NFC Champ - Philadelphia

Super Bowl winner - Philly I almost picked Tampa but didn't want to jinx them because my NFL picks are always wrong. But, hey, if I picked Indy vs. Philly this time last year I'd have been jumping on a popular bandwagon. So could things have really changed that much in 1 year? Perhaps. But I'm expecting a big year from my fantasy QB Donovan McNabb. Andy Reid's a solid coach and I think he'll right this ship now that TO is gone. Landing WR Donte Stallworth in training camp was a steal and I expect him to be a 1200 yard receiver. On the other hand, Indy clearly can't win the big game as the favorite. Maybe if they back into the playoffs, Peyton and Coach Dungy will feel the heat a little less - as long as someone emerges at RB and they avoid a trip to Foxboro!